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Andreas Groth

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Research interests ================== The interdisciplinary character of my research activity plays an important role in my effort to advance and disseminate knowledge at the interface of **climate, environment, economics** and **data analysis**. In the broader context of **climate impact research**, my field of expertise is that of trying to better understand the complex coupled behavior of the socio-economic systems and the climate systems, each of which is highly complex and nonlinear. My work has led to significant mathematical improvements and a better understanding of the advanced spectral method of **Singular Spectrum Analysis** (**SSA**). In the **data analysis** of **complex coupled systems**, the improved SSA methodology greatly helps the identification and interpretation of the underlying mechanisms generating an observed time series. My climate research covers data analysis of **global climatic teleconnections** and advances in a better understanding of **interannual variability**, specifically of **shared atmosphere-ocean mechanisms** and their changes over time. Furthermore, my research delves into a better understanding of intraseasonal timescales, more recently called **sub-seasonal to seasonal** (S2S), and which range from the deterministic limit of atmospheric predictability (about 10 days) up to a season (say, 100 days). These timescales are of particular importance to **sub-seasonal prediction**. In my socio-economic research, the improved SSA methodology has provided strikingly new insights in the study of **business cycles** and has helped us better understand **synchronization of world economic activity**. A complex-valued extension of SSA helps us explore the cluster configuration of synchronization, as well as identify several **major economic events** that have markedly influenced world economic activity in the postwar era. Moreover, my work has led to a better understanding of the influence of interannual climate variability on the **agricultural sector in the Sahel region**. Research topics --------------- Mathematics - Advanced spectral methods -- Singular Spectrum Analysis - Monte Carlo hypothesis testing - Data analysis of complex coupled systems -- Synchronization - Data-driven low-order modeling and empirical model reduction Climate - Global climate teleconnections - Interannual variability of shared atmosphere-ocean mechanisms and their changes over time - Intraseasonal variability and sub-seasonal prediction Socio-economics - Synchronization of world economic activity, cross-country relationships and international business cycles - Deterministic causes of macroeconomic fluctuations - Vulnerability of an economy to exogenous shocks, such as climatic extreme events - Influence of interannual climate variability on the agricultural sector in the Sahel region Environment - Influence of interannual climate forcing on ecosystem dynamics - Effects of temperature variation on fish population structure


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The role of oscillatory modes in US business cycles

Andreas Groth , M. Ghil , Stéphane Hallegatte , Patrice Dumas
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2015, 2015 (1), pp.63-81. ⟨10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jrs0lv715wl⟩
Journal articles hal-01239779v1
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Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy

Andreas Groth , Patrice Dumas , Michael Ghil , Stéphane Hallegatte
Mario Chavez, Michael Ghil, Jaime Urrutia-Fucugauchi. Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling, and Economics, Wiley, pp.343-360, 2015, Geophysical Monograph Series, 978-1-119-15701-4. ⟨10.1002/9781119157052.ch19⟩
Book sections hal-01678074v1