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Andreas Groth

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Research interests ================== The interdisciplinary character of my research activity plays an important role in my effort to advance and disseminate knowledge at the interface of **climate, environment, economics** and **data analysis**. In the broader context of **climate impact research**, my field of expertise is that of trying to better understand the complex coupled behavior of the socio-economic systems and the climate systems, each of which is highly complex and nonlinear. My work has led to significant mathematical improvements and a better understanding of the advanced spectral method of **Singular Spectrum Analysis** (**SSA**). In the **data analysis** of **complex coupled systems**, the improved SSA methodology greatly helps the identification and interpretation of the underlying mechanisms generating an observed time series. My climate research covers data analysis of **global climatic teleconnections** and advances in a better understanding of **interannual variability**, specifically of **shared atmosphere-ocean mechanisms** and their changes over time. Furthermore, my research delves into a better understanding of intraseasonal timescales, more recently called **sub-seasonal to seasonal** (S2S), and which range from the deterministic limit of atmospheric predictability (about 10 days) up to a season (say, 100 days). These timescales are of particular importance to **sub-seasonal prediction**. In my socio-economic research, the improved SSA methodology has provided strikingly new insights in the study of **business cycles** and has helped us better understand **synchronization of world economic activity**. A complex-valued extension of SSA helps us explore the cluster configuration of synchronization, as well as identify several **major economic events** that have markedly influenced world economic activity in the postwar era. Moreover, my work has led to a better understanding of the influence of interannual climate variability on the **agricultural sector in the Sahel region**. Research topics --------------- Mathematics - Advanced spectral methods -- Singular Spectrum Analysis - Monte Carlo hypothesis testing - Data analysis of complex coupled systems -- Synchronization - Data-driven low-order modeling and empirical model reduction Climate - Global climate teleconnections - Interannual variability of shared atmosphere-ocean mechanisms and their changes over time - Intraseasonal variability and sub-seasonal prediction Socio-economics - Synchronization of world economic activity, cross-country relationships and international business cycles - Deterministic causes of macroeconomic fluctuations - Vulnerability of an economy to exogenous shocks, such as climatic extreme events - Influence of interannual climate variability on the agricultural sector in the Sahel region Environment - Influence of interannual climate forcing on ecosystem dynamics - Effects of temperature variation on fish population structure


Image document

Analysis of bivariate coupling by means of recurrence

Christoph Bandt , Andreas Groth , Norbert Marwan , M. Carmen Carmen Romano , Marco Thiel
Rainer Dahlhaus; Jürgen Kurths; Peter Maass; Jens Timmer. Mathematical Methods in Signal Processing and Digital Image Analysis, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp.153-182, 2008, Understanding Complex Systems 978-3-540-75631-6. ⟨10.1007/978-3-540-75632-3_5⟩
Book sections hal-01701452v1