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Andreas Groth

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Research interests ================== The interdisciplinary character of my research activity plays an important role in my effort to advance and disseminate knowledge at the interface of **climate, environment, economics** and **data analysis**. In the broader context of **climate impact research**, my field of expertise is that of trying to better understand the complex coupled behavior of the socio-economic systems and the climate systems, each of which is highly complex and nonlinear. My work has led to significant mathematical improvements and a better understanding of the advanced spectral method of **Singular Spectrum Analysis** (**SSA**). In the **data analysis** of **complex coupled systems**, the improved SSA methodology greatly helps the identification and interpretation of the underlying mechanisms generating an observed time series. My climate research covers data analysis of **global climatic teleconnections** and advances in a better understanding of **interannual variability**, specifically of **shared atmosphere-ocean mechanisms** and their changes over time. Furthermore, my research delves into a better understanding of intraseasonal timescales, more recently called **sub-seasonal to seasonal** (S2S), and which range from the deterministic limit of atmospheric predictability (about 10 days) up to a season (say, 100 days). These timescales are of particular importance to **sub-seasonal prediction**. In my socio-economic research, the improved SSA methodology has provided strikingly new insights in the study of **business cycles** and has helped us better understand **synchronization of world economic activity**. A complex-valued extension of SSA helps us explore the cluster configuration of synchronization, as well as identify several **major economic events** that have markedly influenced world economic activity in the postwar era. Moreover, my work has led to a better understanding of the influence of interannual climate variability on the **agricultural sector in the Sahel region**. Research topics --------------- Mathematics - Advanced spectral methods -- Singular Spectrum Analysis - Monte Carlo hypothesis testing - Data analysis of complex coupled systems -- Synchronization - Data-driven low-order modeling and empirical model reduction Climate - Global climate teleconnections - Interannual variability of shared atmosphere-ocean mechanisms and their changes over time - Intraseasonal variability and sub-seasonal prediction Socio-economics - Synchronization of world economic activity, cross-country relationships and international business cycles - Deterministic causes of macroeconomic fluctuations - Vulnerability of an economy to exogenous shocks, such as climatic extreme events - Influence of interannual climate variability on the agricultural sector in the Sahel region Environment - Influence of interannual climate forcing on ecosystem dynamics - Effects of temperature variation on fish population structure


Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology (CoCEB) Modeling: A Dynamic Approach

Keroboto B.Z. Ogutu , Fabio d'Andrea , Andreas Groth , Michael Ghil
SSRN Electronic Journal, In press, ⟨10.2139/ssrn.3697299⟩
Journal articles hal-03006628v1
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Coupled Climate-Economic Modes in the Sahel's Interannual Variability

Vivien Sainte Fare Garnot , Andreas Groth , Michael Ghil
Ecological Economics, 2018, 153, pp.111-123. ⟨10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.07.006⟩
Journal articles hal-01855370v1
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Synchronization of world economic activity

Andreas Groth , Michael Ghil
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2017, 27 (12), ⟨10.1063/1.5001820⟩
Journal articles hal-01701086v1
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Interannual Variability in the North Atlantic Ocean’s Temperature Field and Its Association with the Wind Stress Forcing

Andreas Groth , Yizhak Feliks , Dmitri D Kondrashov , Michael Ghil
Journal of Climate, 2017, 30 (7), pp.2655-2678. ⟨10.1175/jcli-d-16-0370.1⟩
Journal articles hal-01701108v1
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Pathogens trigger top-down climate forcing on ecosystem dynamics

Eric Edeline , Andreas Groth , Bernard Cazelles , David Claessen , Ian J. Winfield et al.
Oecologia, 2016, 181 (2), pp.519-532. ⟨10.1007/s00442-016-3575-8⟩
Journal articles hal-01288260v1
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Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization: A Comparison of Cyclic Modes in Three European Countries

Lisa Sella , Gianna Vivaldo , Andreas Groth , Michael Ghil
Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2016, 12 (1), pp.25 - 48. ⟨10.1007/s41549-016-0003-4⟩
Journal articles hal-01701122v1
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The role of oscillatory modes in US business cycles

Andreas Groth , M. Ghil , Stéphane Hallegatte , Patrice Dumas
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2015, 2015 (1), pp.63-81. ⟨10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jrs0lv715wl⟩
Journal articles hal-01239779v1
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Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) Revisited: Detecting Oscillator Clusters in Multivariate Datasets

Andreas Groth , Michael Ghil
Journal of Climate, 2015, 28 (19), pp.7873-7893. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0100.1⟩
Journal articles hal-01701132v1
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Oscillatory Climate Modes in the Indian Monsoon, North Atlantic, and Tropical Pacific

Yizhak Feliks , Andreas Groth , Michael Ghil , Andrew W. Robertson
Journal of Climate, 2013, 26 (23), pp.9528-9544. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00105.1⟩
Journal articles hal-01099078v1
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Multivariate singular spectrum analysis and the road to phase synchronization

Andreas Groth , Michael Ghil
Physical Review E : Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, 2011, 84 (3), pp.9528-9544. ⟨10.1103/PhysRevE.84.036206⟩
Journal articles hal-01701146v1
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Quantification of Order Patterns Recurrence Plots of Event Related Potentials

Norbert Marwan , Andreas Groth , Jürgen Kurths
Chaos and Complexity Letters, 2007, 2, pp.301-314
Journal articles hal-01712785v1
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Visualization of coupling in time series by order recurrence plots

Andreas Groth
Physical Review E : Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, 2005, 72 (4), ⟨10.1103/PhysRevE.72.046220⟩
Journal articles hal-01701163v1
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Extratropical Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Oscillations and Multiple Regimes: The Dynamical Systems View

Michael Ghil , Andreas Groth , Dmitri D Kondrashov , Andrew W Robertson
Andrew W. Robertson; Frédéric Vitart. Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting, Elsevier, pp.119 - 142, 2018, 978-0-12-811714-9. ⟨10.1016/b978-0-12-811714-9.00006-1⟩
Book sections hal-01910214v1
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Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy

Andreas Groth , Patrice Dumas , Michael Ghil , Stéphane Hallegatte
Mario Chavez, Michael Ghil, Jaime Urrutia-Fucugauchi. Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling, and Economics, Wiley, pp.343-360, 2015, Geophysical Monograph Series, 978-1-119-15701-4. ⟨10.1002/9781119157052.ch19⟩
Book sections hal-01678074v1
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Analysis of bivariate coupling by means of recurrence

Christoph Bandt , Andreas Groth , Norbert Marwan , M. Carmen Carmen Romano , Marco Thiel et al.
Rainer Dahlhaus; Jürgen Kurths; Peter Maass; Jens Timmer. Mathematical Methods in Signal Processing and Digital Image Analysis, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp.153-182, 2008, Understanding Complex Systems 978-3-540-75631-6. ⟨10.1007/978-3-540-75632-3_5⟩
Book sections hal-01701452v1
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Analyse der Wiederkehr in dynamischen Systemen auf einer Ordinalskala

Andreas Groth
Dynamical Systems [math.DS]. Ernst-Moritz-Arndt Universität Greifswald, 2006. German. ⟨NNT : ⟩
Theses tel-01718849v1